Our weekly seminar series welcomes Schwartz Reisman Faculty Affiliate Anita McGahan, University Professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto.
McGahan and her collaborators recently published a new policy report that details changes in the behaviour of Canadians during the COVID-19 pandemic, with particular focus on mobility and proximity.
Talk title
“Mobility and proximity in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic”
Abstract
The COVID pandemic has had dramatic implications for the mobility and proximity of all Canadians. Before, during, and after the March 13th announcement by the Canadian federal government of fiscal stimulus programs to soften the economic impact of COVID, the people of Canada adjusted their behaviour to reflect an evolving understanding of the significance and implications of the disease and its consequences. Yet March 13th marked a turning point, as the evidence presented in this report demonstrates.
The purpose of the report under discussion is to describe changes in behaviour for the Canadian public, policymakers, and leaders focused on the immediate and lasting impact of COVID social-distancing restrictions on Canadian life. The analysis is the result of a six-month study led by researchers from the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy working in tandem with partners from the ISI Foundation and from the Data for Good Program at Cuebiq. Under its Data for Good Program, Cuebiq donated smartphone activity data for this project. The data, which is described more fully in the body of the report, is collected through an opt-in protocol and is anonymized and privacy-enhanced so that no individual’s movements are identifiable. The methodology for conducting the analysis was reviewed and approved by the Social Sciences Research Ethics Board at the University of Toronto.
The report describes estimates of the mobility and proximity of Canadians across the country and in major cities. The first focus is on mobility, which we assess using a technical measure called the “Radius of Gyration” (ROG). The ROG for an individual on a specific day (or week) is assessed as the average distance that person’s smartphone travels from a focal point such as a residence, with the average weighted by the amount of time spent away from that focal point. However, as noted, we do not report on the movements of any individual. Instead, we report on the median ROG calculated for all individual smartphones whose focal point is in a specific census division. Changes in the ROG for an area represent changes in the mobility of the smartphones in that place.
The overall pattern across virtually all jurisdictions is an initial sharp reduction in mobility in March followed by recovery. By June, mobility in most places had recovered somewhat, and by mid-July, mobility had recovered substantially in many but not all locations. Considerable variability in mobility by census division continued into the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020.
Not all types of mobility have increased, however. The results suggest that the rebound was strongly driven by local ground rather than air travel. The presence of smartphones at airports shows enduring reductions that are significant and persistent. In contrast, we find evidence of significant increases in travel between closely located census divisions within Canada, such as Toronto and Peel; and Vancouver and Victoria.
The pattern of proximity differs from that of mobility. We estimate proximity within a particular hour as the proportion of active smartphones within an area that are co-located with others (i.e., within 50 meters) for at least five minutes during that hour. Daily and weekly proximity measures are the daily and weekly averages of the encompassed hourly proximity measures. Across most Canadian locations, proximity dropped very significantly in March and has not recovered as of the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020. Canadians may be more mobile than early in the pandemic, but overall they continue to avoid interacting with others, with results varying somewhat by location. Shifts in relationships between mobility and proximity are as notable as the overall decline in proximity.
Much more research is needed to understand these changes in Canadian society. What is clear even at this early stage is that the pandemic has had nuanced and significant impact on the ways in which Canadians interact.
About Anita McGahan
Anita McGahan is a University Professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and the Rotman School of Management, where she holds the George E. Connell Chair in Organizations & Society. Her research is focused on industry change, sustainable competitive advantage, and the establishment of new fields. An area of particular interest to her is in global health and the diffusion of knowledge across international boundaries.
About the SRI Seminar Series
The SRI Seminar Series brings together the Schwartz Reisman community and beyond for a robust exchange of ideas that advance scholarship at the intersection of technology and society. Seminars are led by a leading or emerging scholar and feature extensive discussion.
Each week, a featured speaker will present for 45 minutes, followed by 45 minutes of discussion. Registered attendees will be emailed a Zoom link approximately one hour before the event begins. The event will be recorded and posted online.
Anita McGahan